The longest nine days this winter

First off, yes, I know I've been lazy. Next.

I don't know what will happen on February 5th, but I will make a prediction of sorts, in that one of two things will happen by the end of this nomination fight:

1. Barack Obama moves the needle for young voters in the Super Tuesday states and grabs enough delegates to either remain viable or push the rest of the Democratic field out of contention, and wins the nomination. Whether or not he wins the general is another story, but the next generation that grows up will predominantly vote Democratic, and we will see a gradual realignment that brings the country furthest from the right (not necessarily fifty blue states, but a competitive progressive wing of the electorate in some of the most red states in the country) since the Republican Revolution in 1994. All of this will be due to the message of uniting Americans of different cleavages that Bush could not accomplish and that Obama has a chance of achieving. Or...
2. The negative DLC-style triangulation and campaign tactics will push Barack Obama out of the picture come Super Tuesday or shortly afterwards. The grassroots of the insurgent campaign will fall apart, and the Democratic Party, over the next ten years or more, will face a slow but spectacular crash. After rebuffing Howard Dean and the politics of welcoming all voters into the fold, in favor of an albeit well-qualified but otherwise establishment candidate in John Kerry, the Democrats will once again choose the status quo over the politics of hope and optimism that, ironically, swept Bill Clinton into power in 1992. We can forgive the establishment once, and forgive their general election loss, but repeating the same mistake for two elections in a row would be disastrous. The ten years that follow will be spent chasing a new generation of voters that are disillusioned with both parties, making the Karl Rove 50%-plus-one doctrine the weapon of choice in the next three or four general elections. You tell me the last time that's worked well for the Democratic Party.

Maybe experience is what should dictate who belongs in the White House. But Democrats have a hard choice to make. 2008 is not merely about one election, but it will probably dictate American politics for the next generation.